Showing posts with label jobs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jobs. Show all posts

Bad News = Good News = Bad News


Today’s Managing Health Care Costs Indicator is 200


That’s how many job cuts three hospital systems in Massachusetts have announced in the last few weeks. A fourth, Cambridge Health Alliance, has shed 450 jobs, almost 15% of its employees,  in the last 18 months.  The headline on page one of  Sunday's Boston Globe was  “ Health care, job engine for state, is pulling back. Sector sees layoffs, cuts”   Big Massachusetts health care employers including Partners (50,000 employees) are saying they will do no new net hiring this year.


Moody’s just announced a “ negative outlook” for the nonprofit hospital sector, predicting ”weaker financial performance ahead due to a sluggish economic recovery, growing levels of uncompensated care, and flat volume trend.”  Moody’s analyst notes that  “hospitals that can execute deeper levels of expense management through fundamental changes in their operations will be positioned better to navigate the next couple of years. 

Moody’s earlier noted that Medicare cuts would cost the nonprofit hospital industry  $440 million in the next year.  

This is certainly contrary to Christine Roemer’s statement 6 months ago that “health care will remain a large source of job growth in the labor market.” At the time, I worried that increased health care employment meant that we would not get a grip on health care inflation.


Bad news:  Many hospital workers are unemployed, at a time when the job outlook is dim. Further, for every job lost, there are multiple jobs that are not created.

Good news: This means we’re finally going to see a lower rate of medical inflation

Bad news:  Health care is an engine of economic growth, representing 12% of all employment in the country (15% in Massachusetts).   Getting health care costs under control will help increase our international competitiveness, and will free company resources to invest in innovation and growth.   However, much of the innovation and growth in the US has been in health care.  

Cutting the rate of health care cost increases is critical to our economic future, and health care costs increasing at a rate 2-4% higher than overall economic growth is not sustainable.  Cutting this cost growth is not going to be painless, though.

Health Care Adds Jobs

Good news and bad news.

The good news is that employment is up in health care.  In a gloomy job market as unemployment exceeds 10% (and 17% when including underemployment),

The bad news is that increasing employment is almost certainly associated with continued health care inflation.   I was worried when the Council of Economic Advisors  projected robust future growth in health care this summer – I’m concerned that this will bear out my concerns.

Good News…. And Bad News

The Council of Economic Advisors released its report on jobs of the future yesterday. The good news is that the council expects robust growth of jobs in health care.

"Health care is forecasted to remain a large source of job growth in the labor market. The long-term trend toward more employment in health care is expected to continue, with many health care occupations, including medical records and health information technicians, registered nurses, clinical laboratory technicians, and physical therapists, expected to grow." Source

Sounds good. Ironically, the highest growth is expected in ambulatory services including home health care, where MedPAC has recommended large Medicare fee cuts.

The dark side of this forecast is that if there is robust growth in health care jobs – it means that we’ll keep on spending more on health care. This is consistent with the hospital and pharmaceutical agreements to save dollars over the next decade by lowering prices while expecting higher volume of compensated services. It’s not consistent with effective health care reform and universal access with lower overall costs.