Health Growth Slows – Will We Lose Our Burning Platform?

Today’s Managing Health Care Costs Indicator is 3.9%

Click image to enlarge. Source 

Health Affairs just published the annual review of health care spending (from 2010) as calculated by the CMS Office of the Actuary.   The headline in the New York Times is “Recession Holds Down Health Spending,” and the Wall Street Journal says “Weak Economy Curbs Health Spending.” Total health care spending was up only 3.9% - and reached about $2.6 trillion. Overall increase in GDP was 4.2% - making this the first year overall GDP increased more than health care spending in my memory.

The study showed:

-        The effect of the Affordable Care Act on overall health care costs was 0.1-0.2% (by increasing access)

-        Hospital spending up only 4.9% (despite the aging of the population)

-        Professional services (mostly physicians) were up only 2.6%

-        Prescription drugs were up a measly 1.2% - reflecting more generic usage

Out of pocket medical spending was up only 2.8% - a surprise to me given that so many more families are covered by high deductible health plans. That’s an indication that many Americans have been deferring or foregoing health care that they would have received just a few years ago.

Increases by source of health care spending:

-        Employer Premiums: 6.3%

-        Out of pocket: 2.8%

-        Medicare: 7.0%

-        Medicaid: 9.2%

Government spending on health care is up – but don’t assume this means that government is less efficient. Rather, the Medicaid rolls went way up, and Medicare enrollment has increased as well as we continue to live longer and the baby boom ages in to Medicare. Ezra Klein had this graphic yesterday showing that effective inflation rate in government programs is considerably lower than that for private insurance plans.

Source 

We know separately that maternity rates are dramatically down as a result of the recession. These are likely to return to prerecession levels in the future – which will lead to increases in hospital and professional costs.

Source Click Image to Enlarge 

It’s heartening to see health care costs leveling off – but I hope that the sense of urgency in redesigning our health care system will not recede.  Health care still costs far too much, and we must make meaningful efforts to be sure we get more value from the health care system.  Health care is crowding out other important public investments, including education – which can have a larger long-term impact on population health and life than many of our health care system expenditures. And even if Medicare is relatively “efficient,” we can’t afford this program as my generation becomes eligible.

2010 was a good year in terms of health care cost increases.  However, this wasn’t the payoff from great efforts on health care reform; it was rather the consequence of a grim economy.  We’ll have to redouble our efforts to control costs in the environment of economic growth we hope for in the future.