The Alternative To Health Care Reform

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation just published a report by the Urban Institute using a simulation model to show what would happen to insurance and cost of health care assuming that there is no meaningful health care reform.  More to the point, the report shows what would happen if unbridled cost increases continue.   The simulation includes assumptions about unemployment (varying from 5.1-7.1% until 2014, and stable at 5.1% form 2015-2019) inflation (varying from 1-2.5%), changes in consumer price index (low at 2%) and increase in a variety of types of health care spending (ranging from 5%-8%).  

The results are not pretty.  Even the rosiest scenario shows decrease in employer sponsored health insurance (below 50% in the worse scenario), and all 50 states show an increase in the uninsured under all scenarios.   Uncompensated care goes up, and Medicaid and SCHIP  (children's health insurance) costs skyrocket.  

This is the study to support Obama's contention that "When it comes to the cost of our health care, then, the status quo is unsustainable" (AMA speech, 6/15/09).