Showing posts with label PSA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PSA. Show all posts

USPSTF Recommends Against Prostate Cancer Screening


Today’s Managing Health Care Costs Indicator is $3 billion



Word leaked late last week that the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) will recommend against prostate cancer screening with the prostate specific antigen.  The evidence has been piling up for years that routine PSA screening doesn’t save lives – and the cost, morbidity and early death from treatment, and incontinence and erectile function problems caused by this screening are enormous.  This is the link to the USPSTF draft recommendation, which rates prostate cancer screening a “D” (moderate or high certainty that the intervention harms, has no benefit, or harms outweigh the benefits). 

The problem with prostate cancer screening is not only that there are many false positives.  More importantly, there are many true positives that find cancer that would have had no impact on the patient’s life span or quality of life.  A man whose prostate cancer would never have hurt him who has this treated is always worse off!   The scientist who discovered PSA, Richard Ablin, editorialized against its use in screening in 2010.

Prostate cancer treatment is big business, too.  Urologists and radiation therapists make a substantial portion of their income from prostate cancer treatment, and hospitals and physician groups have made huge capital investments in IMRT (intensity modulated radiation therapy) and even proton beam therapy centers. 

Shannon Brownlee, author of “Overtreated” (see bottom of web page for book description) has a thoughtful and well-timed article in the New York Times Magazine today about this difficult issue.  She asks “Can Cancer Ever Be Ignored?”  She reports that the USPSTF was ready to release its finding on PSA screening in 2009 – but the blowback from the suggestion that year that mammography should not be routinely recommended for women between 40-50 delayed the recommendation. It was again delayed before the 2010 midterm elections – and even now the report was put out in draft form only after the content was leaked in the press.  

This draft recommendation is finally published even as a separate investigation suggests that 40% of the cancer screening ($1.9 billion)  services paid for by Medicare are medically inappropriate.  This report only considered PSA screening inappropriate in men over 75. If all PSA screening was considered in appropriate, the portion of cancer screening that is inappropriate would be substantially higher. 

There are some screening tests that improve the quality of health care – including pap smears and mammograms for women between 50 and 69.  There is evolving evidence that CT scans might appropriate for screening those at high risk of lung cancer, although the literature on this is not yet fully settled. 

It’s reassuring to think we can save lives (and money) by screening.  This is true less often than we would wish. 

PSA Scorecard

$3 billion spent on PSA screening annually
1 million men treated with surgery, radiation therapy or both who would not have been treated without PSA testing
5000 deaths shortly after surgery
10-70,000 major complications
200-300,000 cases of impotence, incontinence, or both

Our quest for certainty makes health care expensive AND exposes us to excess risk.


We intuitively believe that medical diagnostic tests are more likely to banish uncertainty than they really are.

Here’s an example. Many executives have an “executive physical” that includes an exercise stress test to be sure they don’t have coronary artery disease, and many patients pay to have a CT scan to assess coronary artery calcification.

Take a 45 year old executive with a normal blood pressure and a normal cholesterol – his “pretest” probability of having a heart attack or cardiac death in the next 10 years is about 1%.  Here is a link that lets you put in age, gender, blood pressure and cholesterol and calculates risk based on data from the Framingham data.

Imagine 1000 such executives, each with a 1% chance of coronary disease. That means that ten of them will have a heart attack or cardiac death in the next ten years.   If they all had exercise stress tests, with a 70% sensitivity (chance a person with disease will have a positive) and a 90% specificity (chance a positive is a “true” positive” we would have 107 positives – but only 7 of them would be correct.  The overwhelming majority of positive tests would be false positives.   There would be almost 900 negatives, and of these only 3 would be “false” negatives.  


      

This calculation of “posterior probability” is called Bayes Theorem

So – even with a positive test a patient has a low chance of serious cardiac event.  A negative test is much more reliable. However, the executive had a 1% chance of heart disease before the test, while after the test the probability remains about 1/3 as high. 

So – we have more data – but not much more information.  Here is a graphic way to look at this:



Worst of all, there is not evidence that people with no symptoms benefit from invasive therapy to correct cardiac disease.  Even the “lucky” executive whose hidden cardiac disease is discovered through this testing might not be so lucky either!

We desire more information – and insist on more diagnostic tests in a vain effort to banish uncertainty.  Alas, tests done under the wrong circumstances don’t do much to diminish uncertainty.  We want exercise stress tests, mammograms and prostate specific antigen tests, even when our risk of disease is low.  The “cascade” of follow-up tests costs substantial sums (the point of this blog).   This cascade also causes discomfort and anxiety –and sometimes real damage to patients.  



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